1.12.10

Iraq. Iran. Endgame.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/30/AR2010113007246.html

Long, unsecured border. Nefarious political regimes. Massive corruption. If Iran gets too frisky in their ongoing attempts to determine the political process in Iraq then eventually the outcry in the rest of the world will be large enough for outside intervention.

But if Iran plays its cards right they can get away with everything short of outright regime change in Iraq. Guns, guerrillas, you name it. Tons of Shiites pilgrim head to Basra all the time. Tons of fuel is smuggled into Iran every day. Iraqi insurgents have used Iranian-supplied weapons and explosives and anti-vehicle munitions.

That said you can only do so much to keep Iraqi and Iranian young civilians from enjoying the freedoms that youth all over the world want and know is possible, thanks to the internet.

Things will work, but it might be a VERY close call and involve a few coups this way or that in Iraq.

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